inSIGHTS With The Founder: Draw Odds Released
Edit 3/24/16: We now have seven states with draw odds
As promised, draw odds has just been released and our INSIDERs can now use our products to plan this year's applications.
You can “see” your odds in three different places
1. Stand alone draw odds experience that showcases your odds for whatever state/species/hunt you are interested in, plus application trends and tags drawn at each point level.
2. Draw Odds is also another filter in Filtering 2.0.
3. It is now incorporated in each season in unit profiles.
Draw odds really rounds out the entire INSIDER product, and now gives the hunter everything they want to see all in one place.
Why are our draw odds different and more accurate than anything thing else in the industry? Because just like everything else in INSIDER, we took the time to make sure we built the best of the best. In our process to get draw odds figured out, we hired a data scientist to architect and build our math equations for each state. What did he build? — An entire collection of data models and a Multivariate Wallenius Hypergeometric Probability Distribution which turns out to be the most accurate approach for draw odds. To be honest, I have absolutely no clue what it exactly means or what it is but I love the odds I get to see.
Draw odds navigation example
Each state is a snowflake and they are crazy different from each other. How do they look at choices, is there more than one pass, how many nonresident tags come off the top, does that state use bonus or preference points, do max point holders get a certain percentage of overall tag allocation and so on. Plus, you are asking the state government to give you things quickly and in full, which was probably the hardest thing in the entire process. It’s been a year and a half since we started our draw odds product and now it’s finally here.
Seven states are currently live
• New Mexico
For full transparency, we have chosen to launch our odds calculator without Arizona. Here is the reason: Arizona has just changed their draw process, and it is yet determined if its for the better or worse if you are a max point holder or a mid point holder. The odds are definitely going to sway this year because of the change, and we chose to not show the old odds as to not confuse or show bad information. Our commitment is to have the most accurate information ever.
For Nevada, yes it’s a snowflake but it’s also one of the most intricate snowflakes of the Western states. In a short explanation, Nevada pulls your name once and looks at your 1-5 choice to see if there is a tag available from any of those choices. So, we need to know at what choice, point level and residency did a certain applicant draw this tag. EVERYTHING in the industry is only telling you the Nevada odds based on first choice only… that is very wrong. Give us a little extra time, right now we are working very closely with NDOW and we are knocking down walls to get what we want so we can give you the real odds you need.
Let us know your thoughts on the draw odds, it’s pretty addictive to see the possibilities of tags that you are in the game for. Good luck in the draws this year. I’m hoping to be hunting elk in the rut in one of the Western states this season. Also, a quick update — Oregon is about 30-60 days away from launching. We will keep you guys updated on that.