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inSIGHTS: Arizona draw odds update


Arizona draw odds update
Bucks like this are what make Arizona famous. This deer was taken with Arizona Strip Guides — a goHUNT Business Member

Starting with the application season of 2016, Arizona changed the way they run their draw process making the past draw odds calculations inaccurate. In the past, most high-demand tags that were issued to nonresidents occurred in the Bonus Pass. Now you might have a chance to pull a coveted tag in the Random Pass.

Arizona’s draw system has changed to the following

  • Up to 10% of the tags are set aside for nonresidents (still the same percentage).
  • The change will only allow up to 50% of the hunt permit-tags that are available to nonresidents to be issued in the Bonus Pass of the draw.
  • Residents will now get 15% of the total tags in the Bonus Pass.
  • Nonresidents will receive roughly 5% of the tags in the Random Draw (nonresidents may not draw their full 5% of the tags in the random because they are limited to “up to 10% total”).
  • Technically, nonresidents could be limited to 5% of the total tags.
  • High point holders will now have a chance in the Random Pass.
  • Now all point levels have a chance at any hunt.

You can check out our Arizona State Profile for a more detailed breakdown of how the sheep and deer draw will go for 2016.

Continued below.

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We have stated this before, but we do not show draw odds for Arizona in 2016 because of the change Arizona made to their draw process. The new change makes calculating draw odds for 2016 very blurry and to a very certain extent, misleading. The odds are definitely going to change this year, which makes the 2015 odds inaccurate and in our opinion, would just create confusion as to the likelihood of drawing a tag in Arizona. The last thing we would want to do as a company is take the easy way out and just say “we have 2016 AZ draw odds.” Instead, we will continue to dissect the new change and figure out how to give our INSIDER’s the most accurate draw odds in the industry. Thank you for being patient with us through this change.  

goHUNT is 100% committed to transparency, accuracy and customer service, that’s why I will continue to tell you where we stand with our INSIDER product and what is going on within the walls of goHUNT headquarters. As much as we would love to have Arizona odds to give to our members this year, sadly we will just have to wait out this change to see how things play out in the new system. The good news is — we will have the most accurate odds available in Arizona before the 2017 application season.

Oregon update

We will have Oregon live on INSIDER during the fall of 2016. INSIDER members will have full access to Oregon Unit Profiles and Filtering 2.0. Stay tuned for updates on more enhancements we are rolling out with in the coming months.

1 Comment

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Hunter H. - posted 3 years ago on 08-18-2016 07:55:53 pm

We applaud the tag holders who made a decision to earn their buck/bull no matter the outcome. Not thinking 100% success on a 200" buck or 400" bull is something to be purchased, but rather earned. Res & non-res hunters who woke up on their own without someone slapping their tent door. Who made their own coffee. Who jumped into the driver seat of the truck, not the backseat... and who set out to do something significant each day...and left the outcome to GOD.
We in Arizona applaud you and respect you for your effort. Its 'YOUR' hunting storied we want to hear.

DIY is quickly becoming a lost art. Its a beautiful thing full of respect and dignity. There's a hire-a-guide frenzy that we see now with internet/social media. If you draw a coveted tag here in Arizona, people will say that you better hire a guide, as if your hunt and life depended on it. Its an eye roller to see this phenomena. Why do we care?......
Here in Arizona, we see the impact of guides greater than most states. Arizona's famous big mule deer bucks are located in a small percentage of the state north of the grand canyon. In comparison to other states, the area is much flatter and easy to hunt. In Colorado for instance, you can find big bucks from the very north border to the south border of the state. Far east to far west. Not so in AZ. Paid Hunting Guides have saturated our 'much smaller area' with hundreds of paid helpers and trail cams.
The pressure on the monster muleys has become excessive in recent times. Making it harder and harder for the DIY guys (majority of hunters) to locate a 190+ buck. Simi-local guides with very local helpers live on-top of the deer year round. They are like the paparazzi taking thousands of pics and giving them names. The bigger bucks can't stand this pressure forever and the hunt quality is worse now than ever. Its TRUE. The catalyst has been the online world that can stoke a flame.
For most of us, there is an assumed 'effort' required of earning the title of "hunter". An unspoken truth; is how your friends and associates will examine your 'effort' to gauge the respect you may or may not deserve. Its a respect thing that dad, granddad and great granddad understood. If you can't do what it takes to earn that 190" buck you and your paid guide are posing behind... then wait til you can. On a paid hunt like that, you're just the guy who pulled the trigger at best, and that's how people will think of it. Go DIY next time. The inner you will thank you.