Kristen A. Schmitt
FOUNDER, Lorenzo Sartini
Updated for 2017 – the most accurate draw odds ever
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Last year we released our biggest project to INSIDER and that release was our Draw Odds platform. All hunters want to know their chances of drawing a coveted tag, and we noticed a lot of errors and inaccuracies in other draw odds systems that were currently on the market so we hired a data scientist to architect and create our math equations for each state. The result was the most accurate draw odds in the industry.
For 2017 we didn’t want to just update our system. We wanted to once again bring you even more information. This year we went a step further with our Draw Odds and included five major enhancements for 2017:
The launch of Arizona draw odds is a huge milestone and was one of the most requested updates. We are the only place where you can find accurate draw adds for Arizona after the 2016 draw changes. You'll also be able to see 2015 draw odds that used the old draw system as well as 2016 draw odds that included the recent draw process change.
Using the draw odds detailed pages for Arizona, you’ll quickly be able to see how the draw system change affected hunters with minimal points and for those max point holders. Strategies for 2017 are definitely going to change for people across all point levels. Utilizing this new information for 2017 is going to be a huge game changer.
Access Arizona Draw Odds
Every state and unit has been updated to show the latest draw odds. You'll now be able to see exactly how the 2016 draw played out to help you decide how to apply in 2017.
Everyone likes tracking trends and our new year-over-year draw odds detail page allows you to do just that.
You'll now be able to see year-over-year trends. This involved an update on both our stand alone Draw Odds page as well as some changes to Filtering 2.0 and our Unit Profiles.
You can now see the draw odds for the Guided Draw on INSIDER for both Nevada and New Mexico. You can view the odds three ways; on the stand alone draw odds page, Filtering 2.0 or on Unit Profiles.
On top of the new changes to Draw Odds, we also changed up our display for New Mexico odds to provide a cleaner approach.
Oregon is in the testing phase and will be available early 2017 before the application deadline.
Stay tuned for updates on more enhancements we are rolling out with. Best of luck in the 2017 draws. Feel free to reach out to us at anytime if you have questions.
If you're unfamiliar with INSIDER, you can read more below.
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Question on draw strategy. Generally speaking, do you put in for the unit you would most want to hunt as your first choice? Then, a unit you are most likely to draw as your second choice?
There are a couple schools of thought here. For a state that looks at all of your choices before moving on to the next person like Nevada. I would totally suggest shooting for the stars on your 1-3 choice and then maybe select a hunt that you would be okay burning your points and drawing as your 4-5 choice.
The other thought would be to just shoot for the stars on your 1-3 choice and do not select a 4-5 choice. That way you are not burning your hard earned bonus points. This is a useful strategy if you have your heart set on a certain unit that might take more points to draw.
If you just want to hunt that year, you could also do a hard to draw rifle hunt as your first few choices, and then muzzy and finally archery units. There's definitely an enormous amount of strategy involved in how you want to use your choices and if you'd be okay hunting a lesser unit.
Then you have states like Colorado where you if you draw your 1st choice you burn your points. Some like to shoot for the stars on their first choice (even though they have statistically no chance of drawing that tag), but they do that to save their bonus points. And then for their second choice select a unit that you may have decent chance of drawing. That way you will still be hunting, and still have a bonus point for that year. Hope that helps.
Let me know if you have any other questions. Hope you have a great day.
I noticed that the 12B west late deer hunt is not showing "12B West" just 12B. Also I don't see the late or early rifle elk hunt for the 18A,15A,15B. Love the site and the information great job guys. This really helps!
Fantastic! I have been waiting so long for Arizona (being the process is so tricky) and thanks to you guys for your hard work at this. This definitely does not disappoint and I'm sure it will only continue to gain features.
I appreciate the explanation. It's interesting when you think about it. But, there really is somewhat of a strategy when it comes to applying.
Any chance goHunt is looking to add data that shows hunting pressure? Say looking at the total number of hunter in a given unit for a given season. Example - unit 67 in Colorado 3rd season total number of tag holders, elk and deer, per square mile.
I think that's a good idea. Although, I think, with a little homework, we could probably come close to that ourselves. What I would like to see is the dropdown list at the top right of the Insider Filtering 2.0 have a category added for Draw Odds.
@John - Thanks for reaching out. That is something we are actually working on adding to the list of enhancements to our unit profiles and Filtering 2.0. I agree with you... it is very powerful information.
@Scott. - If you hover over "INSIDER" on the upper right of the page and before you click on "Filtering 2.0" or any of those states in the dropdown you will see that there is a "Draw Odds" section to the left of that. If you click that you will be taken to our stand alone Draw Odds experience page. Also, you can find another draw odds section in Filtering 2.0 itself.
The stand alone draw odds page is one of my favorite areas for quickly comparing draw odds.
Hope that helps and that you have a great day.
@Travis. Sorry, for some reason I didn't see your comment until now. We do have 12B West draw odds. Currently it is under 12B in the Draw Odds index page, but once you click on the season, at the top left you will see it say 12B West. We are working on changing up the titles to make them easier to see. Along with that we are working on changing up the way we display the maps for Arizona to make this a little clearer. Also, in regards to the limited opportunity elk hunts in Arizona (15A, 15B, 18A, etc.) I am able to see them on my side for elk. It might have been browser cache when you opened up the page since we just had loaded all the AZ odds. Let me know if it isn't showing for you.
Thanks again for all the support!
Typically, that's what I wind up doing is going to the stand alone draw odds section to see what my chances are. And, as you've suggested, within Filtering 2.0 I've done that as well. All things considered, you all have done a great job of putting together a resource that's never been seen before. Whether you guys implement the suggestion, i will leave up to you. Bottom line, you have my business either way.
This entire website would be pointless if we did the research ourselves. These stats are already out there for us to use and decipher, we all choose to pay a small fee to bypass that part of our Internet scouting. I could figure out all of this based on the stats colorado gives us but I'm lazy and don't feel like combing through the numbers.
Have you guys thought about adding the Ranching For Wildlife draw options for residents only in Colorado?
Hi Ross. Thanks for reaching out. Ranching For Wildlife information is on our radar and we hope to add it in 2018 along with cow elk, CWMU in Utah and a lot more. We also have more stuff coming up in 2017 as well. Hope the winter is treating you well.
Thanks Brady. Good read. Have you all considered adding the number of tags available in each unit as a stand-alone search parameter in 2.0 or a separate page for Insiders? I know the previous year numbers can be found in the unit's page. It would be nice to see them side-by-side with every unit.
@Raymond - Thanks! Great to hear when people enjoy these types of articles. Also... that is a great suggestion and one I feel that can be a lot of value in adding. I'm going to bring this up to our data team to see if we can get them added.
Thank you Sir. Your customer service is second to none. Will the 2017 Arizona Application Strategy article be released soon? I'm waiting to study this prior to submitting my AZ app. Thanks again.
You're very welcome, Raymond! The AZ app strategy article is going up today. An article I am really excited to share. A lot of great information packed into it.
Throw one more out there. Is there going to be odds listed for Bear & Mountain Lion in the future in Utah
Hey Clint, bear and lion is definitely on our radar along with wolf, cow, doe, etc. We just need to add a few other enhancements first. Hope to have it live before the end of this year. Thanks
December 29, 2016
Written by: Brady Miller
Insider, Arizona, draw odds, updates, application, strategy, bonus points
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