Past innovations have allowed us to precisely calculate draw odds based on an exact replica of last year’s draw. This has left odds up to “what could be”—until now, that is. Gain an edge and use our Predictive Draw Odds this application season
Draw odds detail page showing an example of Predictive Draw Odds and point creep for a hunt. If you had 10 points for this hunt, we predict point creep will happen, and you may not draw.
We are excited to launch a brand new groundbreaking feature to GOHUNT. That new feature is Predictive Draw Odds! All Insiders currently have early access to this new feature.
At GOHUNT, we are constantly innovating, and that’s why we are the industry leader in hunting research tools. We are dedicated to providing our members with the best tools possible.
We set the standard for draw odds over 10 years ago. Past innovations have allowed us to precisely calculate draw odds based on an exact replica of last year’s draw. This has left odds up to “what could be” — until now, that is.
GOHUNT’s Predictive Draw Odds are now LIVE for Colorado and Utah, with all other six preference point states planned for the 2025 application season. This information may be the difference between drawing a permit this year or being left without a tag.
In addition to Predictive Draw Odds, we still have our “historic” or “normal” draw odds which are an exact representation of what happened the previous year.
GOHUNT's Historic Draw Odds are an exact replica of the previous year's draw. Our data scientists and hunters have combined proprietary formulas and state data to determine the exact historical odds for every point level and unit. Note: All the filters will work off of historical draw odds and not predictive draw odds.
For years, we’ve gotten emails and seen comments about “GOHUNT said I had 100% chance of drawing this tag, and I didn’t draw, what gives?” and in reality, they didn’t account for point creep and they did not fully analyze everything surrounding draw odds. That process was looking at tag allocation, applicants over time, etc. and making an educated guess. But now, we can actually predict that very accurately. Understanding exactly how a points system actually works is vital to drawing a tag, and we are expanding on our knowledge of these systems in a way that benefits you when applying.
Our Predictive Draw Odds are based on numerous factors like past applications, changes in tag quotes, and previous draws, and based on our simulations, we anticipate a 95% confidence level in our predictive odds. We analyze this data to provide an estimate of the coming years chances for each point level. Predictive odds are only an estimate as they are forecasting what could happen in the coming year—make sure to do as much research as you can before applying for tags.
Draw odds are absolutely essential, and this is another tool in your hunting research toolkit.
If you're not an Insider, there's no better time than now to join and get access to our entire set of research tools that will greatly help when planning your upcoming hunts.
When it comes to Predictive Draw Odds, there are several benefits to a user when planning out their hunting applications.
The primary benefit of Predictive Draw Odds is predicting point creep. In preference point states, permits are allocated to the highest point holder. With that, it is critical to predict whether that points jump will happen or not (because you might not draw a tag this year).
Point creep occurs when the number of tags available doesn't meet the demand of applicants, and each year, the point value that it takes to pull the tag keeps creeping upward. Point creep happens all across the West. You’ll typically hear of point creep in preference points systems, but it also happens in bonus point systems, and it even happens on random draw states to a degree with what could be called draw odds creep.
This point creep phenomenon occurs for several reasons: more people start to apply for a unit, more people actually entering the draw after building points for so many years, or the unit is blowing up, causing more people to apply at higher point levels, or the state reduces tags, etc.
Great to look at if you’re at an “in-between” point level where the last few permits might go randomly.
When it comes to draw odds, GOHUNT has been and still is the Draw Odds and research authority!
We have the best draw odds, period. You can't plan without accurate odds. Our Draw Odds are more accurate than the simple state odds that you might see on a state's website or regulation book. People who claim those are "draw odds" are not telling you the entire truth. Our expert data scientists, combined with our Insider research team, are the best there is in compiling, testing, and ensuring our draw odds up to our rigorous standards.
When adding Predictive Draw odds to our research suite of tools, this further reinforces our commitment to hunters and giving them the best data.
Predictive Draw Odds can be found in two different ways on GOHUNT:
The standalone detailed Draw Odds section is located on the GOHUNT homepage, under the “Tools” drop-down menu. Or jump to the link below:
Once you’ve selected a state and species, you’ll now be able to quickly see both “Historic Draw Odds” and “Predictive Draw Odds.”
Historic draw odds can easily be distinguished by the clock icon with an arrow going back in time and are in the first row of a unit/unit group.
Predictive Draw Odds are labeled with a lightbulb icon and are listed in the second row of a unit/unit group, and are also highlighted with a light blue color.
Access our Draw Odds through the link below:
The Draw Odds detail page is the place that will show year-over-year trends in the data of a unit or unit group and will showcase how point creep and draw odds change over time.
On our Draw Odds detail page, you'll see our Predictive Draw Odds at the top; the row will be highlighted in blue. This is a great page to see the power of predictive draw odds when looking at a multi-year trend in draw odds.
Plus, in certain states, we will show how many people applied at each point level, plus how many people drew a tag at each point level.
Important note: The same “previous year’s” data will also be there. This will not change how it is displayed. Predictive Draw Odds are simply a supplemental piece of information to help decide where you want to apply.
Insider makes it easy to find tag opportunities by state, species, probability of draw odds success, and much more! Whether you have 0 points, max points, or any number of points for specific states, Insider gives you the information you need to plan a successful hunt. In addition to our research tools, all Insiders have access to GOHUNT Maps on the web and mobile app. We know that not everyone has access to their computer when they want to research for a hunt, so our research tools are also available on our mobile app. We have the only complete set of research/hunting tools to help you find the hunt you want this year or to help you plan for hunts in the future.
If you're unfamiliar with Insider, you can learn more below.
